#3 The Unpredictable Future of Coastal Landscapes

Today, I'll share my thoughts on why it's challenging to predict how coastal landscapes might change over the next 10 years and beyond. Let’s begin by understanding why this is such an important question.

Why It Matters?

Understanding how coastal landscapes—like cliffs and beaches—might change in the future is crucial, especially if you own property or assets near the coast.You might not be worried about coastal flooding or erosion today, but these issues could affect your property in the future.

It’s important to know:

• How long you can expect to be safe from these threats.

• When and where you should start worrying.

This is a practical concern. The coast has always been a place where humans live and develop, and we’ll keep asking these questions as time goes on.

Why Predictions Are Difficult?

There are three main reasons why predicting coastal changes is so challenging:

1. Uncertain Drivers of Change We’re living in unprecedented times. Humans are now a major force in shaping coastal landscapes:

   • We move more sand and gravel for construction than all the rivers combined.

   • We build dams, seawalls, reclaim land, and manage coasts in various ways.

2. Unpredictable Human Responses Future responses—like government policies, funding, and technology—are uncertain and can shift rapidly, making predictions nearly impossible.

3. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Sea levels are rising due to climate change. Regardless of future CO₂ emissions, we’ll have to deal with this reality.

A Better Approach: Scenario Thinking

Combining human influence and rapid sea level rise creates a complex problem. The best approach is to imagine possible future scenarios:

• Consider potential climate conditions.

• Explore how humans might adapt.

These scenarios help set boundaries for predicting how coastal landscapes might evolve.

The Role of Experts and Models

Experts, often supported by numerical models, can provide probabilistic answers. But because these are long-term assessments, it’s logical to reassess as new data becomes available.

If new data suggests our assumptions or scenarios are no longer valid, we must adapt and revise our predictions.

This iterative process requires:

• Open and transparent data

• Clear assumptions

• Robust thinking tested over time

The more resilient our thinking, the more confident we can be in our projections.

Final Thoughts

If new information challenges our assumptions—or if we haven’t considered certain human interventions—we need to revisit our assessments.

This podcast exists to unpack these complex issues, from modeling to governance and climate change. I will explore these topics in detail.

For more information, visit https://www.coastalgeohazards.com.

Thanks for listening!